Research

We use property-level data to study how rent differences are capitalized into house prices, both across housing markets and within them.

• • Working towards a first draft.

  • Presentations: University College Dublin (scheduled, 2026) and Central Bank of Ireland (scheduled, 2026).

I study the role of mortgage brokers in determining effective mortgage rates charged to borrowers.

• • Under development.

  • Presentations (early idea and results): Central Bank of Ireland (2025) and ChaMP internal workshop (2025).

Abstract: Institutional investors are playing an increasingly important role in residential real estate markets. Their actions may therefore impact aggregate market outcomes and change how and which macro-financial shocks transmit to house prices. We show that a demand shock from institutional investors has a positive and persistent effect on aggregate euro area house price growth and mortgage lending volumes. Institutional investors also increase their purchase activity following a loosening of monetary policy. Exploiting regional heterogeneity across eight euro area countries, we show that institutional investors weaken the link between house price growth and local economic fundamentals such as wages, but strengthen the sensitivity to monetary policy and financial market developments.

• • New version available upon request. 

  • Media coverage and outreach: The Guardian, ECB Blog, SUERF, European Parliament

  • Part of ESCB ChaMP network production.

  • Insights published on the ECB Financial Stability Review and as SUERF Policy Brief

  • Presentations: ECB Financial Stability Seminar (2023), Central Bank of Ireland Economics & Statistics Seminar (2023), Narodowy Bank Polsky and SGH Warsaw School of Economics "Recent Trends in the Real Estate Market and Its Analysis" Conference (2023)*, New York Fed/ECB Non-Bank Financial Intermediation Workshop (2023)*, Irish Postgraduate and Early Career Economics Workshop (2024), International Association of Applied Econometrics Annual Conference (2024), EEA-ESEM Congress (2024)*, Zurich Tri-City Bridge Workshop (2025), Naples International Conference in Financial Sciences (2025), University College Dublin (2025), AFA Annual Meeting PhD Poster Session (2026) and University of Zurich (2026).

Abstract: Using a granular database of variable rate euro area loans and analysing their defaults between 2014 and 2019, we show that the effect of interest rate changes on mortgage defaults is highly non-linear. First, we find that the risk associated with higher contemporaneous interest rates is concentrated among borrowers who got the loan at ultra-low interest rates, their default probability being 2.6 times higher than our sample average. Second, we show that the effect of interest rate changes on the default probability is asymmetric: interest rate cuts have rather small effects, whereas increases significantly raise default probabilities. Finally, we show that the magnitude of the effect of an interest rate increase depends on the history of net interest rate changes, with a consecutive interest rate increase having a 3 times stronger impact on the default probability than an increase following an interest rate decrease.

• • New version available upon request. 

  • Awards: ESRB Ieke van den Burg Prize Runner-Up.

  • Presentations: ifo Institute Internal Seminar (2024)*, Bavarian Macro Day (2024)*, Central Bank of Ireland Financial Stability Research Session (2024), Young Irish Economists Seminar (2024), ECB Financial Stability Seminar (2024), International Association of Applied Econometrics Annual Conference (2025), International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (2026)* and Bank of Portugal (2026)*.

Abstract: A well-documented pattern in US household portfolio data is that the conditionalrisky share remains broadly stable throughout retirement. We ask whether rare but catastrophic health-expenditure shocks in retirement are sufficient to account for this pattern. We develop aparsimonious life-cycle portfolio-choice model in which rare health disasters,calibrated from Health and Retirement Study (HRS) evidence on severelong-term-care episodes and out-of-pocket medical spending, can absorb a largeshare of current retirement income and weaken the safe-asset role of pensionincome. Under this data-driven calibration, the model reproduces the nearlyflat risky-share profile observed in the Survey of Consumer Finances andgenerates a negative health gradient consistent with HRS panel evidence,without bequest motives, housing, annuity choice, endogenous health investment,or recursive preferences.

• • New version available upon request. 

  • Previously circulated as "Health Disasters and Life Cycle Risk Taking", available as Collegio Carlo Alberto Notebook.

  • Presentations: NETSPAR International Pension Workshop (2024).